Preseason Rankings
Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#308
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.7#62
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#220
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-7.1#332
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.6% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 14.8% 26.6% 9.0%
.500 or above in Conference 31.7% 43.3% 26.0%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.8% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.2% 20.9% 34.8%
First Four1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
First Round1.6% 2.9% 1.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Neutral) - 32.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 82 - 10
Quad 46 - 88 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 225   Air Force L 77-82 33%    
  Nov 30, 2020 286   Seattle L 79-81 44%    
  Dec 12, 2020 108   @ Pepperdine L 75-91 7%    
  Dec 16, 2020 138   Pacific L 69-76 26%    
  Dec 27, 2020 298   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 75-79 37%    
  Dec 28, 2020 298   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 75-79 37%    
  Jan 01, 2021 119   UC Irvine L 71-80 22%    
  Jan 02, 2021 119   UC Irvine L 71-80 22%    
  Jan 08, 2021 232   @ UC San Diego L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 09, 2021 232   @ UC San Diego L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 15, 2021 228   @ Long Beach St. L 77-85 27%    
  Jan 16, 2021 228   @ Long Beach St. L 77-85 27%    
  Jan 22, 2021 141   UC Santa Barbara L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 23, 2021 141   UC Santa Barbara L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 29, 2021 315   @ Cal Poly L 77-79 44%    
  Jan 30, 2021 315   @ Cal Poly L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 05, 2021 204   UC Davis L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 06, 2021 204   UC Davis L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 12, 2021 177   @ Grand Canyon L 73-84 18%    
  Feb 19, 2021 200   Hawaii L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 20, 2021 200   Hawaii L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 26, 2021 214   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 68-76 26%    
  Feb 27, 2021 214   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 68-76 25%    
  Mar 05, 2021 208   UC Riverside L 68-71 42%    
  Mar 06, 2021 208   UC Riverside L 68-71 41%    
Projected Record 8 - 17 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.1 2.0 0.2 9.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.2 2.1 0.2 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.1 5.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 15.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.7 6.0 4.7 1.7 0.2 17.6 9th
10th 1.6 4.2 6.1 5.8 3.1 0.8 0.1 21.8 10th
Total 1.6 4.3 7.2 9.8 11.1 11.6 11.8 10.9 8.8 7.3 5.6 3.9 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 89.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-1 80.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-2 52.1% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-3 20.8% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-4 5.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 23.8% 23.8% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-1 0.4% 27.3% 27.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-2 1.0% 15.3% 15.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-3 1.6% 14.1% 14.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4
12-4 2.8% 11.1% 11.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.5
11-5 3.9% 6.0% 6.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.7
10-6 5.6% 5.2% 5.2% 15.8 0.1 0.2 5.4
9-7 7.3% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.1
8-8 8.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.6
7-9 10.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.7
6-10 11.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.7
5-11 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.6
4-12 11.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.0
3-13 9.8% 9.8
2-14 7.2% 7.2
1-15 4.3% 4.3
0-16 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%